Identifying key success factors for sustainable and socially acceptable growth of the European transport industry, in a long-term perspective up to 2050.
How will changes in fuel prices and increased environmental concerns affect the car manufacturers?
How will changes in the global or regional economies impact on the aviation passenger and cargo market?
How could the rail industry change in the next decades, in light of increased urbanization, rising road congestion, and changing mobility demands?
Which innovations (technological and other) may have significant impact on the competitiveness of the European Maritime industries in the decades to come?
RACE2050 foresight study aims to identify key success factors for a sustainable growth of the European Transport industry and for policies which can increase its strength in a long perspective up to 2050. By integrating the tremendous available foresight intelligence into a comparative synopsis, we will be able to compare and assess various visions and especially different policies to reach these goals. The results of this analysis will be discussed with experts from the transport industry, research, policy, and the foresight field. By this, we will come up with weighted explanations and long duree core concepts for a sustainable strength of the European transport industry.
By studying the actual impacts of past foresight studies we will learn how to present our own integrative foresight synopsis and what to expect from transport industry and policy. Important drivers of change will be extracted by analyzing current policies, emerging technologies, energy and environment aspects, demand forces, geopolitical trends and other relevant domains. General Morphological Analysis (GMA) will then be used to integrate and assess a multitude of driving forces for alternative scenarios. Wild Cards analysis will provide additional important input to the final outcomes: novel scenarios for 2030 and 2050 on the competitiveness of the European transport industry. The scenario construction will be supported by a web-based interactive foresight synopsis tool, envisioned to create a long-term legacy for stakeholders, lasting beyond the duration of the project.
RACE2050 foresight study aims to identify key success factors for sustainable growth of the European transport industry and for policies which can increase its strength in a long perspective up to 2050. Lessons from previous foresight studies and visions will help to create novel scenarios for 2030 and 2050 on the competitiveness of the European transport industry, which will enable the European transport industry maintain its leading position in world economy up to 2050. Important drivers of change will be extracted by analyzing current policies, emerging technologies, energy and environment aspects, demand forces, geopolitical trends and other relevant domains. "Wild Cards" analysis will provide additional important inputs. General Morphological Analysis (GMA) will be used to integrate and assess a multitude of driving forces for alternative scenarios.
Dr. Massimo Moraglio
Dr. Massimo Moraglio holds a degree in Political Sciences at the Turin Univ. (M.A.) and in urban planning at the Turin Polytechnic (PhD). He has received a Marie Curie IEF research grant on the social and territorial implications of mobility in the EU. His fields of interest are mobility and its wide effects on political, social and cultural fields, as well as infrastructure and transport technologies in the urban environments. His previous research in Italy, France and Germany were focused on mobility governance and on social construction of transport technology.
Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel
Professor at Berlin University of Technology for Technology and Society
Director of Department for Work and Technology
Board member of the Center for Technology and Society
Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management, Berlin
Dr.-phil., University of Munich, 1993
Dipl.-Ing., Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Munich 1990
MA, University of Munich, 1988
7/2013: Professor for Work Studies, Technology and Society, TU Berlin
3/1998–7/1998: Guest Professor, Center for Technology and Society, Technical University Vienna;
12/1995– today: Director, Center of Technology and Society, Berlin University of Technology; 1/1993–11/1995: Senior Research Fellow, Deutsches Museum, Research Institute;
8/1989–12/1992: Research Fellow, Technical University of Munich, Smithsonian Institution, Washington.
Selected recent publications
Ronald Pohoryles/Hans-Liudger Dienel: INNOCULT revisited. The Impact of EU Research Programmes on the Europeanization of Research, National Science and Research Policies and Institutional Innovation. In: Dorothea Jansen (Hg.): Towards a European Research Area. Proceedings of a Research Conference at the Germany Research Institute for Public Administration Speyer. Baden-Baden: Nomos 2012, 147-165 (Interdisziplinäre Studien zur Wissenschaftsforschung, Bd. 13).
Hans-Liudger Dienel: Bürgerbeteiligung. In: Thomas Olk/Birger Hartnuß (Hg.): Handbuch Bürgerschaftliches Engagement. Weinheim/Basel: Beltz Juventa 2011, 203-215.
Hans-Liudger Dienel: Public Participation Procedures in German Innovation Policy. An Overview. In: OECD General Secretary (Hg.): Forstering innovation to adress social challenges. Workshop Proceedings. Paris: OECD 2011, 75-93.
Hans-Liudger Dienel: Les jurys citoyens : pourquoi sont-ils encore si rarement utilisés ?In: Marie-Hélène Bacqué/Yves Sintomer (Hg.): La démocratie participative inachevée. Genèse, adaptations et diffusions. Paris: Adels 2010, 101-115.
Hans-Liudger Dienel: Citizens’ Juries and Planning Cells: Deliberative Democratic Processes for Consultation and Conflictual Problems. In: Ping Liu/Rudolf Traub-Merz (Hg.): Public Participation in Local Decision-Making: China and Germany. Shanghai: Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press, 2009, 159-180.
Robin Kellermann holds a degree in cultural studies (B.A.) and historical urban studies (M.A.) at Technical University of Berlin. Major research fields are mobility, immobility (waiting) and its implications in the urban economic, social and cultural sphere, as well as urban history, urban planning and the evolution of transport technologies. Currently he is PhD student (“The history of waiting”), and assisting project coordinator of RACE2050 at the Technical University Berlin, an EU-FP7 project devoted to the future competitiveness of the European transport industries.
Iratxe Landa Mata
Iratxe Landa Mata is a research assistant in the Department of Mobility and Organisation at the Institute of Transport Economics (TOI). Her work consists in assisting researchers in various tasks in projects related to tourism and transportation. These tasks include questionnaire and survey design, coordination and implementation of interviews, data collection and data analysis, analysis of policies and internet/desk research. She has experience in European projects and is keen on working in international and interdisciplinary environments. Her research interests are linked to mobility, sustainable tourism and community development. She holds a Bachelor degree in tourism at the University of Deusto (Spain). Currently she is taking a Master Degree in “Sustainability and Corporate Social Responsibility” at the Spanish Open University.
Tel: +47/48 95 94 13
Dr. Johanna Ludvigsen
Dr. Johanna Ludvigsen has twenty years of experience from conceptual, empirical and cross-disciplinary research on international business, industrial management, and impacts of European policies on industry behaviours. Her work encompasses liberalisation of European rail market, optimization of inter-modal freight supply networks, development of environmentally and market-viable logistics solutions and valuation of extreme weather impacts on freight supply. Dr Ludvigsen has coordinated two large international research consortia with scientific and industrial partners from Europe and the US (PPPs). She supervised doctoral students working on optimization of pan-European inter-modal freight corridors. Her work was published in scientific journals and business news letters. Thanks to her expertise she has developed fruitful collaboration with European manufacturing and logistics industry. She is a popular speaker at industry conferences and professional gatherings. In 2002 she received honorary scholarship “Researcher of the Year” awarded by the Board of Institute of Transport Economics. Her status as leading expert on European transport industry is confirmed by multiple assignments as visiting scholar at Pennsylvania State University in the US, and as scientific expert evaluating projects funded by European Commission.
Senior researcher leading the sustainable mobility group at INE
Background: Senior Economist at Credit Suisse, Zurich, Switzerland
Ph.D. field of Economic Geography at Philipps-University Marburg, Germany
Diploma in Geography, Meteorology and Communication Studies at Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany.
The author has a PhD in Geography with focus of the thesis on regional economy and globalization, working also on competitiveness of European cities in an EU-Project during the doctorate. From 2006 to 2010 she worked as a Senior Economist at Credit Suisse in the financial sector on regional economics and transition in Switzerland. The research was mainly focused on interconnections between the quality of location, economy and population development – also providing policy advice for Swiss authorities. Since 2010 the author works as a Senior Scientist at Zurich University of Applied Sciences, establishing the research field of sustainable mobility at the Institute of Sustainable Development. The work includes issues of regional development linked to accessibility, transportation and mobility behaviour with a future focus – mainly in international research projects financed by the European Union.
Fields of activity: research and consulting in
- Sustainable mobility, transportation systems and technology
- Regional economic competitiveness and development
- Context analysis and future research
Current Projects, funded by the 7th Research Framework Program of the EU
OPTIMISM Optimising Passenger Transport Information to Materialize Insights for Sustainable Mobility
RACE2050 Responsible innovation Agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050
METPEX A MEasurement Tool to determine the quality of the Passenger Experience
METRIC Mapping European Transport regional Research and Innovation Capacities
RECREATE REsearch on a CRuiser Enabled Air Transport Environment
Hoppe, M.; Delle Site, P.; Salucci, M.V.; Hepting, M.; Arsenio, E.; Kompil, M.; Anoyrkati, E.: “Research scheme for transport system and mobility behaviour”. OPTIMISM Deliverable 3.1. CUE, Coventry. 2012.
Hoppe, M.; Christ, A.; Seppänen, T.; Dobreva, A.; Mang, S.; Vogler, T.: “Mobility Lake – Nachhaltige Mobilität für Tourismus und Freizeit am Bodensee.” Online-publication, Winterthur. 2012. http://www.ine.zhaw.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/engineering/_Institute_und_...
Hoppe, M.: „ Wirtschaftliche Erneuerungsgebiete: Aktualisierung der Indikatoren für die regionale Abgrenzung 2010.“ Edited by Credit Suisse Economic Research. Zurich. 2010. www.admin.ch/ch/d/gg/pc/documents/1456/Bericht_2.pdf ?
Hoppe, M.; Holdener, V. and Vontobel, N.: „Kanton Aargau Verkehrsinfrastruktur und ihre Auswirkungen.“ Swiss Issues Regionen, edited by Credit Suisse Economic Research. Zurich. 2009. https://www.credit-suisse.com/news/doc/media_releases/verkehr_pr.pdf ?
Hoppe, M.: “The importance of economic globalization in the development of agglomeration - the case of Frankfurt/Main.” Marburg. 2006.http://archiv.ub.uni-marburg.de/diss/z2006/0297/
Several studies on Swiss regional economy structure and development, edited by Credit Suisse Economic Research, Zurich. 2006-2010.
Martin Winter, is a junior researcher at Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW). As research assistant in the area of sustainable mobility, his research concentrates on economic and eco-geographical topics. He is involved in several national and European mobility projects with a focus on analysis of space and traffic and mobility behavior. Key activities are in the fields of regional and spatial analysis with GIS (Geographic Information System). He holds an MSc in Geography from Augsburg University in 2012.
Tel.: +41 58 934 49 74
Fax.: +41 58 935 49 74
Analysis of Transport system technologies and their spatial differences, Calculation and analysis of mobility indicators to illustrate spatial developments in mobility.
Research on technological innovations in the mobility sector, Mobility behavior of different user groups.
Dr. Yoel Raban
Yoel Raban is senior researcher at TSF/ICTAF since 1984. Ph.D. in marketing and M.A. in economics. Extensive research and consulting experience in the area of socio-economic impacts of technology. Dr.Raban has performed many research and consulting projects, including strategic analysis for telecom operators and assessment of the economic potential of the Israeli biotech and remote-sensing industries. Dr.Raban has been involved in several EU PF5/6/7 projects, such as e-Living (take-up of information technologies in Europe), KINX (knowledge integration in hi-tech SMEs), ELOST (e-Government), SSH-Futures and PATS.
Dr. Aharon Hauptman
Aharon Hauptman is senior researcher at TSF/ICTAF since 1988. Dr. Hauptman has a B.Sc from the Technion (Israel Institute of Technology) and Ph.D in Engineering from Tel-Aviv University (1986). Specializing in the evaluation of trends in emerging technologies and their impacts, he has much experience in Technology Foresight and its relations with research policy and with various application areas. Examples of past/recent activities: Delphi surveys of emerging technologies; foresight in nanobiotechnology; foresight in the area of future unmanned/autonomous systems, "wild cards" and "weak signals". He has been involved in several EU FP6 projects (ELOST, Knowledge-NBIC, SSH-FUTURES) and led central work-packages or tasks in the FP7 projects FESTOS (impact of future/emerging technologies on security), PRACTIS (impact of future technologies on privacy), iKNOW (wild cards and weak signals shaping the future science, technology and innovation policy) and RACE2050 (future transportation scenarios).
Dr. Tom Ritchey
Dr. Tom Ritchey is a former Research Director for the Institution for Technology Foresight and Assessment at the Swedish National Defence Research Agency (FOI) in Stockholm. He is a methodologist and facilitator who works primarily with non-quantified decision support modelling -- especially with General Morphological Analysis (GMA), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Multi-Criteria Decision support.
Since 1995 he has directed more than 100 projects involving computer aided GMA for Swedish government agencies, national and international NGO:s and private companies. He is the founder of the Swedish Morphological Society and Director of Ritchey Consulting LLC.
List of relevant articles:
Ritchey, T.: "Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis". UN University Project: Futures Research Methodology Series, 2005
Ritchey, T.: "Problem Structuring using Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis". Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 792-801.
Ritchey, T.: ”Modelling Alternative Futures with General Morphological Analysis”, World Future Review, Spring 2011, pp. 83-94.
Ritchey, T.: Wicked Problems/Social Messes: Decision support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer: Berlin, 2011.
Mónica Oliveira (Territorial Engineer, GIS Post graduation, MBA) works in VTM since 2003. Mónica has over ten years of professional experience in transport, logistics and waste management. Following a 6 year period of gaining expertise in general consultancy in transport planning and operations, environmental issues and in transaction support advisory, Monica is currently the Manager in charge of coordinating our work for the EC funded projects and of our relationship with international and multilateral institutions. Mónica has a strong technical and business academic background, with extensive experience in transaction support advisory work in transport and logistics.
Nuno Soares Ribeiro
(Civil Engineer, MSc, DIC) works at VTM since 1997 and is a Partner since 2005. His over 20 years of professional experience covers all transport modes and systems in 3 continents: Europe, Africa and Latin America. Nuno is responsible for the transaction advisory services and is the partner in charge of the company’s service and relationship with key sector corporations and institutions. Advisory experience covers aviation, rail and road sectors in areas such as performance and efficiency improvement of infrastructure and systems, asset “sweating”, demand and revenue forecasting, CBA’s, risk analysis and mitigation strategies, systems functional design, judiciary and arbitral disputes, bid strategy and delivery. Work is developed under different approaches, including strategic appraisals of new business opportunities, transaction and bid / tender advisory, public and private sector investment planning and applied research in transport. Clients include private sector investors and financiers, transport infrastructure and services operators, public agencies and international organizations.
Miguel Silva (MSc in Mechanical Engineering, MBA in logistics) works at VTM since 2001 and is currently a Manager in charge of road transportation modelling and logistics. Experience in transportation engineering consulting, demand and revenue analysis, project evaluation, risk and economic analysis, preparation of bids, and re-leases. Miguel has participated in several studies of highway concessions in Portugal, Brazil, Mozambique and Cape Verde. Strategic analysis of passenger and freight transport in air, road and rail modes are also part of his experience.
Coordinator of RACE2050: Massimo Moraglio (TU Berlin)
Tel: +49 30 314-29826
Telefax: +49 30 314-21120
Robin Kellermann (TU Berlin)
Tel.: +49 30 314-24373
Telefax: +49 30 314-21120
Technische Universität Berlin
Institute for Work & Technology
Sekr. MAR 1-1, Marchstraße 23, 10587 Berlin
Telefon: +49 (0)30 314-78838
Telefax: +49 (0)30 314-21120